Published Papers
Cross-border mobility responses to COVID-19 in Europe: new evidence from facebook data (with Frédéric Docquier, Nicolas Golenvaux, Siegfried Nijssen, and Pierre Schaus). 2022. Globalization and Health.
[ Abstract | Paper | Data & Code ]
Abstract: Assessing the impact of government responses to Covid-19 is crucial to contain the pandemic and improve preparedness for future crises. We investigate here the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and infection threats on the daily evolution of cross-border movements of people during the Covid-19 pandemic. We use a unique database on Facebook users’ mobility, and rely on regression and machine learning models to identify the role of infection threats and containment policies. Permutation techniques allow us to compare the impact and predictive power of these two categories of variables. In contrast with studies on within-border mobility, our models point to a stronger importance of containment policies in explaining changes in cross-border traffic as compared with international travel bans and fears of being infected. The latter are proxied by the numbers of Covid-19 cases and deaths at destination. Although the ranking among coercive policies varies across modelling techniques, containment measures in the destination country (such as cancelling of events, restrictions on internal movements and public gatherings), and school closures in the origin country (influencing parental leaves) have the strongest impacts on cross-border movements. While descriptive in nature, our findings have policy-relevant implications. Cross-border movements of people predominantly consist of labor commuting flows and business travels. These economic and essential flows are marginally influenced by the fear of infection and international travel bans. They are mostly governed by the stringency of internal containment policies and the ability to travel.
Commitment or concealment? Impacts and use of a portable saving device: Evidence from a field experiment in urban India (with Janina Isabel Steinert, Rucha Vasumati Satish, and Sebastian Vollmer). 2022. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization.
[ Abstract | Paper | Working Paper | Data & Code | Pre-Analysis Plan ]
Abstract: To quantify the impact of a novel “soft” commitment intervention, we randomly allocate 1525 Indian slum dwellers to receive a zip purse and a lockbox (treatment) or a lockbox only (control). After six months, we document a 19 percent increase in total savings in the treatment arm. The effect is sustained in a sub-sample of participants we re-interview during the COVID-19 pandemic, twenty months after initial distribution of the devices. While temptation spending was not reduced, additional analyses suggest that the zip purse served as a hiding rather than a self-control device. Our results highlight the importance of considering the role of financial transfers to other household members in future saving promotion programs.
The impact of co-national networks on asylum seekers’ employment: Quasi-experimental evidence from Germany (with Krisztina Kis-Katos). 2020. PLOS ONE.
[ Abstract | Paper | Working Paper | Code ]
Abstract: Using novel registry data on persons receiving asylum welfare benefits in Germany for the period from 2010 to 2016, and quasi-experimental variation induced by German allocation policies, we identify the role that the size and composition of local co-national networks of asylum seekers play for formal labor market access within the same group. While the individual employment probability is not linked to network size, it increases with the number of employed local co-national asylum seekers and decreases with the number of non-employed network members, thereby underlining the central importance of network quality.
Other
A replication of Jones & Marinescu (2022) (with Etienne Bacher, Mario Herrera-Rodriguez, and Diego Marino Fages). 2023.
[ Abstract | Draft | Code ]
Abstract: Jones and Marinescu (2022) study the employment effects of a universal cash transfer in Alaska. Using a synthetic control method, they find that the transfer had no negative effects on employment. We reproduce the results using their replication package and investigate if the results hold when using a different software to run the analysis. We also use different estimation techniques and perform sensitivity checks to assess robustness of the results. We find some differences in the size and significance of the average treatment effects on labor force participation and hours worked when we use a different software (R) and various extensions of the synthetic control method. We also find smaller and insignificant coefficients on part-time employment when including more covariates. However, these differences do not contradict the main conclusion of the paper of no negative employment response.
